A statistical approach to discovering the best players in college football.
In case you missed it, JaMarcus Russell is trying to make a return to the NFL. And, if, as the saying goes ‘you’re the average of your three best friends,’ then JaMarcus should be on the rise with the quality team that he’s established. Let’s take him into The Lab to see how he compares with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL.
Without Geno and Barkley, this game really takes a hit. In the long run, only two or three quarterbacks per draft class end up panning out and I think Geno and Barkley are the 2013 class’ best chances. Let’s see if any of the six Senior Bowl quarterbacks will make a splash in the NFL. Here’s how I rank them heading into this week.
#1 Landry Jones, Oklahoma (SOUTH)
Remember in 2010 when everyone was sky high on Landry Jones and thought he was a sure fire RD 1 pick? Well, there’s good news and bad news to this statement. The bad news is that Landry has not progressed as a player since 2010. His growth has plateaued and he likely ‘is what he is,’ leaving little room for growth in the NFL. On the other hand, the good news is that Landy Jones in 2012 performed almost identically to Landry Jones in 2010, meaning that he’s still a high performing quarterback, relatively speaking. Away from his comfy Oklahoma environment, it will be interesting to see how Landry performs this week.
#2 EJ Manuel (SOUTH)
The good news about EJ Manuel is that he still appears to be growing as a quarterback. In virtually every metric his numbers improved from 2011 to 2012, indicating that there’s still upside. Perhaps with superior NFL coaching, the raw talent that everyone has loved will blossom into a star caliber player. The frustrating part about EJ is that the production, in the form of high TD passing game performances, isn’t there. Consider that in 2011 AND 2012 combined, he only had SIX meaningful games with 2+ TD passes. Compare this with single season performances from guys like Drew Brees (8 in 2000), Tom Brady (7 in 1999), and Andrew Luck (7 in 2011) and it’s clear to see that something is awry. Manuel is an interesting player, but I’d like to see more.
#3 Ryan Nassib (NORTH)
In the same way that Landry Jones ‘plateaued’ between 2010 and 2012, the same could be said for Nassib. He threw touchdowns at a lower rate, interceptions at a higher rate, and overall graded out as a low-ceiling prospect. He strikes me as a serviceable backup, game-manager type, but others seem to think he’s top 50 material. Like Ryan Tannehill, he seems to be a hot candidate for 3rd best QB contention, which could send him shooting up draft boards. I’ll be watching him close this week to see if he ‘flashes’.
#4 Tyler Wilson (SOUTH)
Wilson is REALLY hard to get a read on. His performance–and the team– went from outstanding with Bobby Petrino in 2011 to an utter debacle in 2012 under John L Smith. While his attempts/gm and completion percentage held relatively steady, he threw touchdowns 20% less often and interceptions 300% more often. Unlike Nassib, Manuel, Jones, and Glennon, Tyler Wilson didn’t play in a bowl game. With 7 weeks to prep for this game, he needs to impress or risk getting lost in the fray.
#5 Mike Glennon (NORTH)
Glennon is a curious case. He threw the ball 18 more times per game in 2012 than in 2011, completing fewer passes but completing them further down field. This would indicate to me that he was playing catch-up a lot. To further this theory, his interception rate was the highest of any Senior Bowl quarterback. As an overall product, he seems to have slightly regressed from his 2011 form; not the direction you want to be heading in when the competition is only going to get tougher.
#6 Zac Dysert (NORTH)
Dysert is my lowest graded QB in this game. Despite entering 2012 as a buzzy mid-major prospect, Dysert failed to back up his 2011 performance. Despite his pass attempts and pass-distance remaining steady, he completed 7 percent fewer passes. His TD% held steady but his interception% spiked. Given the disastrous state of the Miami University football program, it will be interesting to see how he fairs in this game. With an improved supporting cast, will his talent shine through? Or will the increased level of competition, compared to the MAC, cause him to struggle?
Over the weekend the East-West Shrine Game featured a number of nice players. While the commentators admitted that “this game isn’t for guys that will get drafted in the first two rounds,” they did go on to say that many solid mid-round prospects were present. Below, I list specific players who had cleared some draftability-hurdles in my system and who I wanted to scout further with my own two eyes.
Quarterbacks
West: Matt Scott (Arizona), Seth Doege (Texas Tech)
East: Colby Cameron (La Tech)
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Arizona QB Matt Scott showed the most physical talent, in my opinion, but was far from stellar. He made several strong throws immediately after hitting the 3rd or 5th step of his dropback. He showed a strong arm on a 35 yard throw from the opposite hash, although it probably should have been intercepted on a nice jump by the defender. On one drive, he made a nice decision when a 1-man route was covered, tucking to run for positive yardage and show off his wheels. On two occasions he failed to get the play in, requiring his team to take a timeout. The announcers pointed out that Arizona operated with a ‘check with us’ sideline playcalling system. Yes, this is a knock, but surely someone will draft him on the physical tools, hoping to coach him up on the terminology.
Needing to overcome his ‘smallish’ size and ‘system QB label, Seth Doege failed to deliver. While the commentators praised Doege’s arm strength, it was hardly on display. He one-hopped a deep comeback on the first drive and had a pass deflected at the line on second drive. While he showed nice pocket presence, eluding the rush, he under threw a receiver on a crossing route, nearly getting intercepted. On at least three occasions, he failed to ‘pull the trigger’ on time, once resulting in a sack/fumble and another time in an interception on a late throw to the endzone. The one bright spot came from on a 40 yard pass down the sideline which was broken up via pass interference. Doege seemed uncomfortable ‘out of his system’.
Colby Cameron was rough too. He seemed to labor on an opposite hash 5 yd curl, one hopped an 8 yard curl route, and was late/off target on an out route that was intercepted & returned for a touchdown. The one ‘nice’ throw he made was a 40 yard streak down the sideline, but the defender routed the receiver outside and the pass ended up off target. Similar to Matt Scott, Cameron is a one-year wonder from a high powered system, but I would say that Cameron showed less physical talent than Scott.
Collin Klein did nothing to help his case. He seemed to labor on medium range throws and was intercepted on an underthrow on a deep route. He missed Emory Blake on a deep-out that seemed like it should have been routine. He struggled to square his shoulders rolling left. He flashed as a runner, so maybe their is a niche/wildcat role for him, but I don’t believe he has any future as an every down QB in the NFL
While he grades very poorly in my system, credit to Nathan Stanley for being the first QB to air it out, showing some arm strength and livening up the game.
Wide Receivers
west: Chad Bumphis (Mississippi State), Anthony Amos (MTSU), Jasper Collins (Mt Union)
east: Corey Fuller (Va Tech), Marcus Davis (Va Tech), Emory Blake (Auburn)
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Chad Bumphis struck me as the best receiver in the game. He showed quick-start speed coming off the line of scrimmage and strong change of direction ability. On three occasions he threatened the defensive backs, slammed on the breaks, and caught passes on comeback passes. On one play he challenged the outside shoulder of the defender, got the DB to flip his hips, and broke hard to the inside, wide open for a deep ball. Unfortunately Seth Doege didn’t pull the trigger. Bumphis showed good concentration on his touchdown, catching the ball with a CB flashing in front of his face, turning and getting into the end zone. He’ll have work to do with his run blocking, but showed the receiving skills to be a threat in the slot.
Corey Fuller explodes off the line of scrimmage. His track background and 6′ 2” frame ooze of upside. His best play was a deep out that he caught, spun upfield, and showed good acceleration while picking up 21 yards. He has a
Jasper Collins showed some intangibles that I liked, but had minimal production. He showed good effort while sealing of the edge with two blocks on end around that scored. He was also quick to pounce on a fumble. Unfortunately, he muffed a punt and turned in a so-so 3 catches for 17 yards.
Emory Blake looks like a sharp route tunner. While he is definitely not a blazer, he showed polish on the two routes in which he was targeted. Also, he showed up as a blocker.
MTSU WR Anthony Amos continued his march from anonymity to the NFL. He showed nice concentration hauling in a slant between defenders. He made nice play in a scramble-drill situation, moving with the QB and coming back to the ball. He tracked the ball well on a 40 yard throw down the sideline but was the victim of PI. He looks to have some open field moves and should hear his name called on draft day.
It will be interesting to see what happens with former Army QB Trent Steelman. He certainly seems to have some ‘shake’ to him, looked fast, and was–unsurprisingly–a high effort player.
Running Backs
West: Kerwynn Williams (Utah State)
East: Ray Graham (Pitt)
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The game got off to a rough start for Ray Graham. On the first play from scrimmage he dropped the ball while switching hands, resulting in a turnover. As a smaller back, Graham would seem to have an opportunity to contribute on special teams, but he seemed slow to reach top speed. From the line of scrimmage, he showed good change of direction, picking his way for positive yardage. He also showed nice skills on a swing pass, making first guy miss and moving the chains on 3rd down.
Unlike Graham, Kerwynn Williams showed nice return skills and seemed to have more ‘shake’ in the open field. As a runner, he had a couple nice 7+ yard runs. Despite his small stature, the announcers praised his pass protection skills, a critical aspect if he is to carve out a niche role in an NFL offense. I think we’ll hear more from Williams.
Tight Ends
West: Joseph Fauria (UCLA), Zach Sudfeld (Nevada)
East:
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Disappointingly, Joseph Fauria from UCLA had to pull out of the game with a hip injury. He caught an outstanding 11 touchdowns in 2012 and, on size alone (6′ 7”), should find a place on an NFL roster.
Zach Sudfeld looked slow off the line and seemed to have his routes easily altered by linebackers. On several occasions he was seen lumbering down the field, blocking nobody in particular, or whiffing on blocks completely. He also dropped a pass inside the redzone on a nice throw from Matt Scott. This was a disappointing effort.
Ace Sanders pulled the ol’ switcheroo, deciding to declare for the NFL draft after it was originally reported that he would return for his senior season. Let’s take him into The Lab and examine his NFL prospects.
In 37 career games at South Carolina, Sanders only went over 60 yards receiving on six occasions.
2010: twice in 13 games
2011: once in 12 games
2012: three times in 12 games
Hardly inspiring…
In 2012, his average stat line was 3.7 catches, 44 yards, and .75 touchdowns. Now, before you come at me with “South Carolina isn’t a passing team,” consider that Sanders productivity grade was only a 51, which accounts for strength of passing game. Normally, you want to see numbers of a least 60+ with elite prospects scoring in the 80+ range.
The other knock I have on Sanders is his 5’8” 175 lb frame. Not many guys that small are making it happen in the NFL on a consistent basis.
In his last two games of the season, Sanders posted the two best games of his career:
Given that Sanders ended 2012 with a bang, it’s not surprising to see him ‘sell high.’ The only problem is that I’m not sure I would buy him as a wide receiver prospect. He might be a useful return man, but otherwise his NFL value is limited.
Last night on the NFL network I saw a mock draft that had Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson going in the top 10 of the NFL Draft. Let’s take him into The Lab and dissect his 2012 season.
Patterson arrived at Tennessee with much fan fare. He was a highly touted JUCO prospect after posting a 61 catches-924 yards-15 TDs in 12 games for Hutchinson Community College. With two years of eligibility remaining, he was poised to join the high-powered Vols aerial game led by fellow WR Justin Hunter and QB Tyler Bray (lol).
His 2012 season was a moderate success, posting 46 catches, 778 yards, and 5 touchdowns, but he was still second fiddle to Justin Hunter, who stats were at least 40% higher than Patterson in each category. Does anyone else find it strange that the ‘best WR in the 2013 draft’ was maybe not even the best WR on his own team?
On a per game basis, Patterson’s numbers look something like this: 3.8 catches, 64 yards, .42 TD. For historical perspective, those are comparable to SEC guys like Early Doucet (81st pick, 2008 draft) and Earl Bennett (70th pick, 2008 draft). What have those guys done in the NFL?
And you’re thinking of taking Patterson in the top 10?
Let’s compare him to another ‘bigger’ SEC wide receiver, Mohamed Massaquoi (50th pick, 2009 draft). Massaquoi actually posted better numbers than Patterson, with 4.5 catches, 70 yards and .6 TDs per game. Looks like Massaquoi wins out in this contest.
And you’re thinking of taking Patterson in the top 10?
I wish I was joking, but I honestly don’t see how Patterson is any better of a pass catcher than Auburn’s SR Emory Blake, who is ranked 30th of the Senior Wide Receivers… not all wide receivers…. 30th of the SENIORS! And in fairness to Blake, he was playing in a far worse passing attack.
Average Season Stat Line:
Games vs BCS conf opponents with 4+ catches
Games vs BCS conf opponents with 60+ receiving yards
Games vs BCS conf opponents with 1+TD
And you’re thinking of taking Patterson in the top 10?
Okay fine, so I can’t be 100% hate. The youtube highlight reels are impressive. He shows outstanding change of direction and open field skills. But, the thing that bugs me is that they’re almost all on runs and kick off returns. For the season, Patterson ran it 25 times for 308 yards and 3 TDs while also amassing ~800 return yards.
(Continuation piece on Patterson’s historical unworthiness here)
The passes he does catch are mostly in favorable matchups when the defense is scheming to stop Justin Hunter. For ‘the best WR in the 2013 draft,’ he doesn’t do a lot of receiving. And you certainly can’t draft a guy in the top 10 to be a kick returner, can you, Miami Dolphins?
Funny I should mention that incident and Tedd Ginn. Yes, Patterson is bigger, but his highlight reel looks a lot like Tedd Ginn’s. In fact, so do his receiving numbers. How’d that Tedd Ginn thing work out?
The College Football Experiment 